In The Logic of Failure, Dietrich Dörner explores why people often fail when dealing with complex systems. Using case studies, simulations, and real-world examples, the book dissects cognitive, behavioral, and systemic reasons for poor decision-making, and offers practical strategies for dealing with complexity. Dörner advocates for systems thinking, iterative learning, and understanding interdependencies. He argues that failure is often the result of cumulative errors rather than inherent cognitive flaws.

Changes in one element have unpredictable consequences for others. Systems evolve over time, often in nonlinear ways. Complexity challenges human cognition. Decision makers often work with partial, ambiguous data. These challenges lead to errors in planning and decision-making. Dörner shows that people often oversimplify problems and ignore systemic interactions. People also focus on short-term solutions and neglect long-term consequences. Finally, people rely on flawed mental models or incorrect assumptions.

Effective decision-making involves iterative learning, hypothesis testing, and critical reflection on past actions. Dörner writes that success requires systems thinking: seeing systems as interconnected networks with feedback loops, and anticipating unintended consequences. He identifies common cognitive traps: linear thinking, methodism, ballistic behavior and temporal myopia:

- Ignoring exponential growth or cyclical feedback loops.
- Relying on routines or previous strategies even when they are inappropriate.
- Taking action without considering consequences, driven by the illusion of competence.
- Focusing on immediate problems rather than long-term effects.

Humans struggle with cognitive overload. We have difficulty processing multiple variables simultaneously. We hesitate to adapt or revise flawed models because of overconfidence or emotional attachment. We also prefer quick fixes over comprehensive solutions. These tendencies, Dörner argues, are clearly visible in real-world disasters such as the Chernobyl explosion, where overconfidence, groupthink, and misjudgment of systemic risks led to catastrophic outcomes.

Dörner suggests, that in order to deal with complexity, we have to define clear goals, develop models, anticipate trends, and monitor results:

- Break vague or conflicting goals into clear, actionable components.
- Create coherent mental models that account for interdependencies and feedback loops.
- Consider future developments and long-term consequences.
- Continuously evaluate the effects of actions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Dörner contrasts forward planning (starting with the present) with backward planning (working backward from a goal). Both approaches have their merits, but must be used flexibly based on context. Success lies in balancing thorough preparation with adaptability and iterative learning.

It's important to understand feedback loops (understanding how positive feedback reinforces change while negative feedback restores balance) and to analyze one’s thinking processes to identify and correct errors. In experiments, participants who reflected on their actions performed better, demonstrating that deliberate practice and structured feedback improve problem-solving skills.

Clear, specific goals are important. Goals such as “improving safety” (or even "improving safety culture") lack actionable clarity. Conflicting goals require prioritization and compromise. Solving one problem often creates others, so systems thinking is necessary. For example, tackling hunger with pesticides can cause ecological imbalances. Effective goal setting involves deconstructing goals, recognizing interdependencies, and maintaining a focus on long-term results.

Dörner combines psychology, systems theory, and real-world cases to provide a comprehensive analysis of failed decision making. The book gives practical tools and models for dealing with complexity. The lessons are applicable to fields as diverse as ecology and business management.

While the book focuses on cognitive constraints, it doesn't explore external factors such as organizational culture or resource constraints. Also, the distinction between “good” and “bad” decision makers sometimes oversimplifies the nuanced reality of decision-making under pressure.

Source:

Dörner, D. (1989), Die Logik des Misslingens: Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen, Rowohlt. (Also available in an English translation; see picture above.)