Autism: Predictive Processing and Sensory Sensitivity

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) affects various aspects of life. Individuals with ASD face challenges in predicting, sensory overload, self-doubt, burnout, and finding and keeping employment. Due to difficulties with the brain’s predictive processing, autistic individuals struggle with integrating social cues and may also experience motor difficulties. Coping strategies such as cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), relaxation, and the maintenance of routines can be helpful. Understanding and accommodating the unique predictive processing style of autistic individuals in workplaces can enhance their work experience and reduce stress.

 

Autism Spectrum Disorder

Autism is a spectrum disorder, meaning that there is no single way to experience it—each individual has unique challenges and capabilities. ASD is diagnosed based on social communication difficulties, restricted interests, and atypical sensory processing. Additionally, autistic individuals often experience eating challenges, such as selective eating due to sensory sensitivities, leading to a restricted diet or mealtime difficulties.

Autism is also associated with heightened anxiety and worry, often triggered by disruptions in routines, social comprehension difficulties, sensory overload, or difficulty expressing needs effectively. This can lead to frustration and distress, sometimes manifesting as repetitive behaviors, withdrawal, or excitement in certain situations.

 

The Brain’s Predictive Processes

As human beings, we constantly predict what happens in the world. Even before the senses pick up stimuli, the brain prepares expectations based on past experiences. Then, sensory input is used to check those predictions for accuracy and survival value. The brain does not like prediction errors—it either (1) updates its model of the world or (2) adjusts the external world to fit expectations.

Autism may be fundamentally a disorder of prediction rather than merely a sensory processing difference. Research suggests that autistic individuals struggle to form broad, flexible predictive models of the world. Instead of integrating context to anticipate what will happen, they tend to rely on highly detailed, situation-specific experiences. This heightened reliance on detail over broader patterns may explain why unpredictability causes extreme anxiety in autistic individuals.

 

Challenges in Predicting for Autism

A key struggle for autistic individuals is determining when to trust their internal predictive model versus when to rely on new sensory input. This difficulty in balancing prior expectations with new information results in heightened unpredictability and difficulty forming concepts.

Symptoms such as lack of social interest, repetitive behaviors, hypersensitivity to sensory features, and difficulties with anxiety and depression align closely with a “discombobulated” predictive brain—a brain that struggles with coherence, orientation, and integrating new information. This disrupted predictive system may explain why autistic individuals experience heightened sensitivity, overstimulation, and difficulty coping with uncertainty in social interactions.

 

Body Budgeting, Anxiety, and Burnout

The brain’s predictive processing is deeply tied to body budgeting—the ability to efficiently allocate energy and resources to maintain mental and physical stability. In non-autistic individuals, efficient predictions reduce cognitive strain, conserving mental and physical energy. However, autistic individuals often operate on a reactive model, relying heavily on immediate sensory input rather than predictive efficiency.

This imbalance in body budgeting means that autistic individuals are more prone to burnout. Without a fully optimized predictive brain, they are constantly reacting to the world instead of relying on automated expectations. This results in chronic stress and eventual exhaustion, especially when they are required to mask their traits or navigate unpredictable social situations.

 

Self-Doubt and Burnout

Burnout in autism may stem from chronic body misbudgeting. If the brain struggles to efficiently manage energy, it becomes more vulnerable to sensory overload, anxiety, and emotional exhaustion. Many autistic individuals experience self-doubt, often due to past rejection or invalidation. This can lead to questioning one’s self-worth and ultimately contribute to meltdowns, avoidance of challenges, and therapy resistance.

 

Resistance to Change and Sensory Overload

Anxiety in autism is closely linked to the unpredictability of sensory input. Because autistic individuals lack a stable predictive model, they depend heavily on external consistency to feel safe. Any unexpected change—whether a job transition, moving houses, or hospitalization—can cause intense distress. This explains why autistic individuals resist change and prefer structured environments, as they minimize cognitive burden and prediction errors.

 

Difficulties in Communication

Autistic individuals do not have an automatic social response mechanism. While they may understand social cues, doing so requires significant effort. Non-autistic individuals, on the other hand, operate on social autopilot, constantly searching for hidden motives in conversations.

 

Misinterpretation of Social Cues

Non-autistic individuals often misinterpret the directness of autistic communication. Because neurotypical brains are wired to analyze social motives, they may mistakenly attribute hidden agendas to autistic individuals, even when none exist. For example, when an autistic person clarifies their intent explicitly, it may paradoxically increase suspicion among non-autistic individuals, reinforcing social misunderstandings.

 

Motor Clumsiness and Prediction

Motor coordination issues, also known as Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD), are linked to predictive difficulties in autism. A stressed, uncertain autistic brain is often too focused on external sensory input, leaving little room for internal movement monitoring. This can result in uncoordinated movement, difficulties with fine-motor tasks, and posture issues.

 

The Vicious Circle of Sensory Overload

Autistic individuals often update their world models in extreme detail, leading to excessive prediction errors and overstimulation. This creates a vicious cycle—the more they struggle with prediction errors, the more they experience sensory overload, leading to increased stress and anxiety.

Dampening sensory input (e.g., avoiding noise) does not necessarily help, as the brain then adapts to fewer stimuli and becomes even less tolerant to new sensory input.

 

Coping Strategies

Autistic individuals need more time to process information. Tools such as written language, diagrams, photos, and slowed-down interactions help manage sensory and cognitive demands.

 

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) can help counter absolute thinking, which is common in autism. CBT can teach individuals to recognize:

• Black-and-white thinking (rigid categories)

• Over-focusing on negative details while ignoring successes

• Drawing conclusions not supported by facts

• Reasoning based on emotions rather than logic

 

The Roles of Routines and Relaxation

In a world filled with unpredictability, routines and repetitive activities provide a sense of calm and control. Alongside CBT, relaxation techniques can be highly beneficial. Creating a predictable and comfortable environment helps autistic individuals handle unexpected changes more effectively, reducing the need for rigid, overly specific world models.

 

Autism: A Valuable Perspective

Autistic individuals offer a unique way of perceiving and interacting with the world, often emphasizing detail, justice, and deep focus. Their honesty and analytical thinking can be valuable in workplaces and communities. By understanding predictive processing in autism, we can create more supportive environments that respect and accommodate autistic individuals’ cognitive styles.

Further reading:

• Bervoets, J., Milton, D., Van de Cruys, S. (2021), Autism and Intolerance of Uncertaitny: An Ill-fitting Pair, in: Trends in Cognitive Science, LETTER| VOLUME 25, ISSUE 12, P1009-1010.
  
• Burns, D.D. (1999), Feeling Good - the new mood therapy, New York: Avon Books.
• Feldman Barrett, L. (2017), How Emotions Are Made - The Secret Life of the Brain, London: Macmillan.
• Hartman, L.M. and others (2023), Organizational benefits of neurodiversity: Preliminary findings on autism and the bystander effect, in: Autism Research, Vol. 16, Issue 10.
• Khan, Sheraz and others. 2015. "Somatosensory cortex functional connectivity abnormalities in autism show opposite trends, depending on direction and spatial scale." Brain,138; 1394–1409.
• Madlo-Thiess, F. (2024), Autismus explizite vs. implizite Kommunikation, LinkedIn-post July 22nd, 2024.
• Sinha, Pawan and others. 2014. "Autism as a disorder of prediction." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(42): 15220-15225.
  
• Suzuki, N, Hirai, M. (2023), Autistic traits associated with dichotomic thinking mediated by intolerance of uncertainty, Nature Scientific Reports (2023) 13:14049.
• Van de Cruys, Sander, Kris Evers, Ruth Van der Hallen, Lien Van Eylen, Bart Boets, Lee de-Wit, and Johan Wagemans. 2014. “Precise Minds in Uncertain Worlds: Predictive Coding in Autism.” Psychological Review 121 (4): 649–675.
• Vermeulen, P. (2022), Autism and the Predictive Brain, Routledge.